How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Aluminij or Draw 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Aluminij and 1.3 from Radomlje, so Aluminij come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Radomlje come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Aluminij or Draw. This covers Aluminij or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Aluminij have won three of the last five meetings.
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