What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from NK Celje and 0.9 from Nafta, so NK Celje come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
NK Celje come into this on three straight draws. Nafta come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: NK Celje to win. NK Celje are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.9), and we make them about 68% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
NK Celje have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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