NK Bravo v NK Celje: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made NK Celje to win 43%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from NK Bravo and 1.7 from NK Celje, so NK Celje come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: NK Celje to win. NK Celje shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.7), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.