How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Nk Brinje Grosuplje to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Nk Brinje Grosuplje and 1.5 from Nafta, so Nk Brinje Grosuplje come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Nk Brinje Grosuplje to win. Nk Brinje Grosuplje are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.5), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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