How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Maribor to win 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Nk Brinje Grosuplje and 1.9 from Maribor, so Maribor come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Maribor to win. Maribor shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.9), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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