How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Olimpija Ljubljana to win 62%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Olimpija Ljubljana and 0.7 from Mura, so Olimpija Ljubljana come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Olimpija Ljubljana to win. Olimpija Ljubljana are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.7), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Olimpija Ljubljana have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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