How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made AmaZulu FC to win 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from AmaZulu FC and 0.7 from Marumo Gallants, so AmaZulu FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: AmaZulu FC to win. AmaZulu FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.7), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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