How it turned out
We projected about 1.4 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Milford FC to win 38%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Milford FC and 0.6 from Richards Bay, so Milford FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.4 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Milford FC to win. Milford FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 0.8-0.6), and we make them about 39% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.50, which works out at about 40 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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