How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Besiktas and 1.1 from Buyuksehyr, so Besiktas come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Buyuksehyr to score 1 or fewer. This is about Buyuksehyr's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 71%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Besiktas have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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