How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 57%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Rizespor and 1.6 from Trabzonspor, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Rizespor come into this on two straight defeats. Trabzonspor come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.1 goals between the two (xG 1.5-1.6), landing about 59% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Trabzonspor have won three of the last five meetings.
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