How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Corum and 1.0 from Kasimpasa, so Corum come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.9 goals between the two (xG 1.9-1.0), landing about 79% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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