How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Galatasaray to win 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Erzurumspor and 2.3 from Galatasaray, so Galatasaray come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Galatasaray to win. Galatasaray shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.2), and we make them about 72% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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