How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Gaziantep and 1.3 from Alanyaspor, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.7 goals between the two (xG 1.4-1.3), landing about 77% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short.
