How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Genclerbirligi and 1.9 from Fenerbahce, so Fenerbahce come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Fenerbahce or Draw. This covers Fenerbahce or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Two-way cover still leaves one result that beats you, and tight games can turn on a single mistake. We make it about 83% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
