How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Genclerbirligi (Draw No Bet) 71%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Genclerbirligi and 0.7 from Erzurumspor, so Genclerbirligi come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Genclerbirligi come into this on four straight wins. Erzurumspor come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Genclerbirligi (Draw No Bet). Genclerbirligi are favoured here (xG 1.6-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Genclerbirligi defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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