What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Konyaspor and 0.7 from Kocaelispor, so Konyaspor come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Konyaspor come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 1.9 goals in total (xG 1.2-0.7), keeping it under more often than not (about 66%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. We make it about 66%: a lean, not a lock.
