What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Rizespor and 1.2 from Alanyaspor, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.4-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 76% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
If chances go begging or a red card tightens things up, the goals may simply not come. We make it about 76% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
