How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Rizespor and 1.2 from Alanyaspor, so Rizespor come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.4-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 76% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Alanyaspor have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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