How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Luzern to score 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Lugano and 1.2 from Luzern, so Lugano come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Lugano come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Luzern to score. This is about Luzern's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 71%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Lugano have won four of the last five meetings.
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