How it turned out
The game finished with 5 goals. We made Under 3.5 goals 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Lugano come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 2.6 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Lugano have won three of their last five.
✓Zurich have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in one of the last five meetings.
Recent results
11 Apr 2026Zurich 0 - 1 Lugano
17 Dec 2025Zurich 0 - 1 Lugano
18 Oct 2025Lugano 1 - 0 Zurich
2 Mar 2025Lugano 0 - 3 Zurich
24 Nov 2024Lugano 4 - 1 Zurich
Lugano have won four of the last five meetings.
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