How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks evenly balanced. Our goal expectations are 1.3 for Sion and 1.2 for Lugano, so the total is about 2.5 goals. There is almost nothing separating the two sides on those numbers, which suggests a fairly open match rather than a tight defensive battle.
Recent results show a clear split in form. Sion have lost their last two games and have only won two of their last five league matches. Lugano, on the other hand, have been strong, winning four and drawing one in their previous five. In the last five meetings between the clubs, Sion have won twice, Lugano once and two games ended in draws, with an average of 3.2 goals per match. The most recent encounter ended 2-2, indicating both sides can find the net.
We pick both teams to score. Both clubs are scoring around a goal per game and the recent 2-2 draw proves they can hit the net against each other. The price of 1.46 matches our view of the game, and we feel comfortable with a 67% chance of both sides scoring.
It would have to go wrong if the game turned into a defensive slog with few chances, or if one side failed to hit the target completely. A clean sheet for either team would break our expectation. We still hold the view fairly strongly, but we know football can be unpredictable.
Recent meetings
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