How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Young Boys and 1.5 from Basel, so Young Boys come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Basel come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.8 goals (xG 2.3-1.5) and it takes five to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 70%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
