What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Thun and 1.9 from Lugano, so Lugano come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Lugano come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.9), and we make both teams to score about 62%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Lugano have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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