How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Karpaty to win 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Karpaty and 0.8 from Veres Rivne, so Karpaty come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Karpaty to win. Karpaty are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Karpaty have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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