How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Shakhtar Donetsk to win 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Shakhtar Donetsk host Chornomorets Odesa at home in a Ukraine Premier League clash on 14 September 2026. Shakhtar sit third out of sixteen teams with twelve points from five games and a plus six goal difference, just one point behind Karpaty and three ahead of FC Kharkiv. Chornomorets are down at 13th with four points from four games and a minus two goal difference, sitting in the relegation zone, level with Liviy Bereh above them and a point clear of Obolon Kyiv below. Both sides have something to prove: Shakhtar want to keep pressure on the European spots, while Chornomorets need points to climb out of danger.
Shakhtar’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight matches, they have won three, drawn two and lost three. The most recent results were a 1-1 draw away at PSV Eindhoven, a 2-1 win away at Karpaty and a 2-1 loss away to Crystal Palace. Before that they fell 3-1 at home to Crystal Palace, then drew 2-2 away at AZ Alkmaar and beat AZ Alkmaar 3-0 at home. Across those eight games they have scored fourteen and let in twelve, keeping only one clean sheet. Seven of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in seven of them, showing an open style of play. The team played just four days ago, so they come into this fixture on a short turnaround.
Chornomorets have not enjoyed a bright spell either. In four league games they have collected four points and sit with a negative goal difference. Their most recent outing was a 2-0 defeat, which left them still struggling to find the net. The side has managed to score only a handful of goals in those matches, and the chance they will score at all against Shakhtar is less than half, according to the numbers we have.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce plenty of goals, with both sides finding the net in most encounters. Given Shakhtar’s higher scoring rate and the fact that seven of their last eight games featured three or more goals, we can expect another open contest. Chornomorets are unlikely to keep a clean sheet, but they also have a low probability of scoring more than once. The numbers point to an attacking game with chances at both ends.
Our pick is a Shakhtar Donetsk win. The price of 1.14 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which makes it look a little cheap. We think Shakhtar have about an 81 % chance of coming out on top, based on their stronger position, better goal record and the fact they are expected to score at least once in 94 % of their games. The bet would go wrong only if Chornomorets manage to surprise with a solid defensive display and score twice, or if Shakhtar’s short rest leads to a poor performance. Otherwise, backing Shakhtar to win looks the cleanest play.
Recent results
Shakhtar Donetsk have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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