How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Shakhtar Donetsk to win 86%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.8 goals from Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.5 from Obolon Kyiv, so Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Shakhtar Donetsk to win. Shakhtar Donetsk are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.8-0.5), and we make them about 88% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 86 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.07, which works out at about 93 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Shakhtar Donetsk have won five of the last five meetings.
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