How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Shakhtar Donetsk (Draw No Bet) 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.9 from Polissya Zhytomyr, so Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Shakhtar Donetsk (Draw No Bet). Shakhtar Donetsk are favoured here (xG 1.7-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Shakhtar Donetsk defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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