How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi to win 41%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even but the numbers give Epics a small edge. Kudrivka are expected to score about 1.1 goals while Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi are expected to get around 1.4. That makes the total around two and a half goals, so we can expect a modestly open match with a chance of a goal from each side.
Recent numbers show Epitsentr as the stronger side. Their goal expectation is higher and they have a better chance of winning according to the figures we have. The pattern suggests they are likely to be the side that pushes ahead, especially when they are playing away.
Our pick is Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi to win. We think they have about a 43 % chance of getting the three points. The price of 2.30 matches our view of the game, so the odds look right for a straightforward bet on the visitors.
For the pick to go wrong, Kudrivka would need to keep a clean sheet and score first, then hold on. A defensive display from them or a missed chance could flip the result. We are reasonably confident in our view but we know a 43 % chance means the result can still swing either way.
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