How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Zorya to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Zorya and 1.0 from FC Kharkiv, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Zorya to win. Zorya are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.10, which works out at about 32 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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