How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Liverpool FC to win 41%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Cerro Largo and 1.1 from Liverpool FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Liverpool FC to win. Liverpool FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.1), and we make them about 42% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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