What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Club Atletico Peñarol and 1.1 from Nacional, so Club Atletico Peñarol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Club Atletico Peñarol (Draw No Bet). Club Atletico Peñarol are favoured here (xG 1.6-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Club Atletico Peñarol defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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