What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Club Atletico Peñarol and 1.1 from Nacional, so Club Atletico Peñarol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Club Atletico Peñarol (Draw No Bet). Club Atletico Peñarol are favoured here (xG 1.6-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Club Atletico Peñarol defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Nacional win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 67% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.