How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Racing to win 43%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Cerro and 1.1 from Racing, so Racing come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Racing to win. Racing shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.1), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.94, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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