What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Cerro and 1.1 from Racing, so Racing come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Racing to win. Racing shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.1), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Cerro a draw or better. We make it about 45% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
