What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Nacional and 0.9 from Juventud de las Piedras, so Nacional come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Nacional to win. Nacional are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Juventud de las Piedras to spoil this. We make it about 59% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
