How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Nacional to win 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Nacional and 0.9 from Juventud de las Piedras, so Nacional come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Nacional come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nacional to win. Nacional are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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