What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Danubio and 1.4 from Club Atletico Peñarol, so Club Atletico Peñarol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Club Atletico Peñarol to win. Club Atletico Peñarol shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.4), and we make them about 53% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.93, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Danubio a draw or better. We make it about 53% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
