What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Defensor Sporting and 1.4 from Club Atletico Peñarol, so Club Atletico Peñarol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Club Atletico Peñarol or Draw. This covers Club Atletico Peñarol or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.16, which works out at about 86 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Club Atletico Peñarol have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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