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Football/Veikkausliiga/Ilves v Mariehamn
Veikkausliiga · Tammelan Stadion

Ilves v Mariehamn: how it went

Ilves crestIlvesLWWLL
2 - 0
Mariehamn crestMariehamnLLLDL
Full time

How it turned out

The game finished with 2 goals. We made Not both teams to score 61%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Ilves come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 3.7 goals between the two (xG 2.8-0.9). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.

We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.

What the numbers say
Ilves have won two of their last five.
Mariehamn have not won any of their last five.
Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

18 Apr 2026Mariehamn 2 - 2 Ilves
31 Aug 2025Ilves 2 - 1 Mariehamn
27 Apr 2025Mariehamn 3 - 2 Ilves
11 Aug 2024Ilves 2 - 0 Mariehamn
28 Apr 2024Mariehamn 0 - 1 Ilves
Ilves have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.

One thing to watch

A single defensive slip or a late set-piece, and the clean sheet this needs is gone. At around 61% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.

More Veikkausliiga fixtures

Full fixture list
KuPS crestKuPSvTPSTPS crest★★★★★
This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.5 goals in total (xG 1.7-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 69%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
Under 3.5 goals · 1.52Share
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