How it turned out
The game finished with 2 goals. We made Under 3.5 goals 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 3.7 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Ilves have won two of their last five.
✓Mariehamn have not won any of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent results
18 Apr 2026Mariehamn 2 - 2 Ilves
31 Aug 2025Ilves 2 - 1 Mariehamn
27 Apr 2025Mariehamn 3 - 2 Ilves
11 Aug 2024Ilves 2 - 0 Mariehamn
28 Apr 2024Mariehamn 0 - 1 Ilves
Ilves have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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