How it turned out
The game finished with 2 goals. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.5 goals in total (xG 1.7-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 69%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓KuPS are unbeaten in their last five — four wins and one draw.
✓TPS have won two of their last five.
✓Five of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in five of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
17 Jun 2026TPS 1 - 2 KuPS
4 Nov 2020TPS 3 - 2 KuPS
29 Aug 2020KuPS 3 - 1 TPS
21 Oct 2018KuPS 2 - 1 TPS
5 Aug 2018KuPS 3 - 2 TPS
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. We make it about 69%: a lean, not a lock.
