How it turned out
The game finished with 3 goals. We made Under 3.5 goals 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
SJK come into this on three straight defeats. HJK come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 3.4 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓SJK have won one of their last five.
✓HJK have won three of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
4 Apr 2026HJK 3 - 0 SJK
22 Oct 2025HJK 3 - 4 SJK
13 Sept 2025SJK 3 - 3 HJK
20 May 2025HJK 4 - 2 SJK
11 Apr 2025SJK 1 - 0 HJK
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 68%: a lean, not a lock.