Academia Puerto Cabello v Monagas SC prediction

What to expect

Academia Puerto Cabello host Monagas SC in the final round of the Venezuelan Primera División. Both clubs sit at the bottom of the table, with Academia in third place on six points and Monagas in fourth on three. Caracas sit just above Academia, three points clear, while the gap between Academia and Monagas is also three points. A win for the home side would lift them to four points clear of the last-placed team and give them a chance to pull away from the relegation zone. The price for an Academia win is 1.65, which is shorter than our own reading of the match.

Academia’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won four, drawn one and lost three. The most recent results are a 2-1 away win over Caracas, a 3-2 loss to Deportivo Táchira away, a 1-0 loss to the same side at home, a 1-0 defeat by Caracas at home, a 2-1 away win over Monagas and a 3-3 draw with Monagas at home. In those eight outings they have scored twelve goals and let in eleven. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to find the net twice. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them.

Monagas have struggled more sharply. Their last eight fixtures contain two wins, two draws and four defeats. The sequence includes a 2-0 loss to Deportivo Táchira at home, another 2-0 loss to Caracas at home, a 3-2 away win over Caracas, a 2-0 away loss to Deportivo Táchira, a 2-1 home loss to Academia and a 3-3 away draw with Academia. Over those eight matches they have scored ten and conceded fifteen. They have been shut out three times. Four of the games produced three or more goals and both teams scored in five of them. The side arrive on the back of two straight defeats.

The two clubs have met twice in the league this season. Academia won one game, Monagas none and one match ended in a draw. Those meetings produced an average of 4.5 goals. The most recent encounter, on 24 October, saw Academia beat Monagas 2-1 away. Given the recent high-scoring nature of their clashes, we can expect another open game with chances for both sides, but Academia’s better recent record and home advantage should give them the edge.

We pick Academia Puerto Cabello to win. The numbers show them as the stronger side, with an expected 1.6 goals against Monagas’ 0.9. Our chance of this result is about 54 percent, which is higher than the implied chance in the 1.65 price. The price is therefore short and looks good for a simple win. For the pick to fail, Monagas would need to rediscover the form that gave them a 3-2 win over Caracas and keep a clean sheet, or Academia would have to miss both of their scoring chances. In that scenario the result would turn out opposite to our expectation.