Portuguesa v Metropolitanos prediction

What to expect

We expect about 1.1 goals from Portuguesa and 1.3 from Metropolitanos, so Metropolitanos come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Portuguesa Under 1.5. This is about Portuguesa's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 71%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.