Carabobo v Deportivo La Guaira: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Carabobo or Draw 81%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.4 goals from Carabobo and 0.9 from Deportivo La Guaira, so Carabobo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Carabobo or Draw. This covers Carabobo or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.22, which works out at about 82 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.