How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Deportivo Táchira to win 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Deportivo Táchira and 0.9 from Monagas SC, so Deportivo Táchira come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Deportivo Táchira to win. Deportivo Táchira are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.9), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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