What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Carabobo and 0.7 from Estudiantes de Mérida, so Carabobo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Carabobo to win. Carabobo are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.7), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
