Trujillanos v Caracas FC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 68%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.1 goals from Trujillanos and 1.3 from Caracas FC, so Caracas FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Caracas FC come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.0-1.3), and two is enough to land it, landing about 70% of the time on these numbers.

We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.