How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Deportivo La Guaira to win 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Deportivo La Guaira and 0.9 from UCV FC, so Deportivo La Guaira come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Deportivo La Guaira come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Deportivo La Guaira to win. Deportivo La Guaira are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.9), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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