Rayo Zuliano v Portuguesa: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Rayo Zuliano to score 1 or fewer 69%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Rayo Zuliano and 1.6 from Portuguesa, so Portuguesa come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Rayo Zuliano to score 1 or fewer. This is about Rayo Zuliano's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 69%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.