What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Rayo Zuliano and 1.5 from Portuguesa, so Portuguesa come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.2-1.5), landing about 49% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.82, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Rayo Zuliano have won one of their last three.
✓Portuguesa have won two of their last five.
