How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 3.5 goals 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Deportivo Táchira and 0.8 from Caracas FC, so Deportivo Táchira come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.6 goals in total (xG 1.8-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 73%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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