What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Trujillanos and 1.3 from Monagas SC, so Monagas SC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.1-1.3), and two is enough to land it, landing about 71% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. We make it about 71% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
