How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Metropolitanos to win 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Metropolitanos and 0.7 from Trujillanos, so Metropolitanos come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Metropolitanos to win. Metropolitanos are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.7), and we make them about 72% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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