How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Carabobo to win 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Rayo Zuliano and 1.6 from Carabobo, so Carabobo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Carabobo to win. Carabobo shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.6), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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