What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Portuguesa and 1.2 from Deportivo La Guaira, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Portuguesa or Draw. This covers Portuguesa or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Portuguesa have won two of their last five.
✓Deportivo La Guaira have not won any of their last five.
Recent results
8 Dec 2013Dvs Gremio · 0 - 0
1 Dec 2013Wat Ponte Preta · 0 - 2
24 Nov 2013Lat Bahia · 1 - 0
17 Nov 2013Wvs Atletico-MG · 2 - 0
13 Nov 2013Dat Botafogo RJ · 0 - 0
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